Bitcoin Slips 1.4% to $80,768 as ETFs Post $636M Outflows

Market Snapshot

Bitcoin (BTC) — 80767.59 (-1.37%) [Binance US] · Ethereum (ETH) — 2378.18 (-1.23%) [Binance US] · Solana (SOL) — 102.23 (-2.23%) [Binance US] · XRP — 1.2869 (-3.05%) [Binance US] · S&P 500 (SPY) — 759.85 (-0.54%) [Twelve Data] · Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) — 704.39 (-0.01%) [Twelve Data] · Dow Jones (DIA) — 521.40 (-1.23%) [Twelve Data] · Gold (GLD) — 366.61 (-0.65%) [Twelve Data] · US Oil (USO) — 169.54 (+4.32%) [Twelve Data]

Crypto Markets

Bitcoin retreated 1.37% to $80,767.59 as US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $636 million in net outflows, erasing the previous day's inflows and reinforcing a pattern of institutional selling during market weakness, according to The Block. The outflows mark a continuation of behavior documented in a new DWF Labs report, which found that ETFs recorded net withdrawals in seven of the eight Bitcoin sell-offs of 15% or more since their January 2024 launch, according to CoinMarketCap. The research challenges the widely held view that institutional ETF buyers consistently accumulate on dips, instead showing they have largely sold into major downturns.

Ethereum fell 1.23% to $2,378.18, underperforming Bitcoin as US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $110.6 million exit on October 22, reversing prior inflows, according to CoinMarketCap. The selling pressure coincided with developers postponing the Glamsterdam testnet upgrade to investigate security risks in proposed gas changes, adding near-term uncertainty to the protocol's scaling roadmap. Broader altcoin weakness extended across major tokens, with Solana down 2.23% to $102.23, XRP off 3.05% to $1.2869, and BNB declining 0.71% to $737.81.

CoinMarketCap noted that Bitcoin briefly cleared $86,000 earlier in the week, putting the average US spot ETF buyer back above their estimated $81,722 cost basis before the latest pullback. The price action reflects a crypto market caught between fading institutional inflows and broader risk-off sentiment, with total market capitalization declining 3.36% over the prior 24 hours according to aggregated data. Liquidations and tighter liquidity across order books contributed to elevated intraday volatility, particularly in mid-cap altcoins and memecoin pairs.

Stock Markets

US equities closed mixed as investors braced for a pivotal week of megacap earnings and a Federal Reserve policy decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.23% to close at 521.40, while the Nasdaq 100 edged down just 0.01% to 704.39 and the S&P 500 declined 0.54% to 759.85. The divergence reflected continued pressure on cyclical and financial stocks offset by relative stability in technology shares after Thursday's sharp AI-related selloff.

According to Reuters, US stock investors face critical tests next week from corporate earnings reports led by major AI players including Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, alongside a Federal Reserve meeting. Meta is among the hyperscalers spending heavily to build out data centers, while semiconductor companies that have driven the AI rally remain under scrutiny. CNBC reported that 163 S&P 500 companies are set to report results next week, with Wall Street trying to find its footing as the AI trade continues to stumble. The Wall Street Journal noted that big semiconductor stocks traded quietly on Friday after Thursday's 7% decline, with most finishing around 1% higher in a tentative stabilization.

Gold & Commodities

Gold snapped a three-session losing streak, with futures settling higher as US Treasury yields and the dollar both declined. The GLD ETF fell 0.65% to $366.61 in the session, but according to the Wall Street Journal, gold futures gained support from easing immediate pressure. Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com cautioned that while the pressure has eased, he would be reluctant to interpret the day's gains as a clear signal the correction is over, noting that central bank purchases continue to cushion the downside.

Silver declined 1.26% to $48.72, underperforming gold as industrial-metal sentiment remained subdued. Natural gas fell 2.98% to $9.595 amid mild weather forecasts and ample storage levels. Reuters reported that gold is set for a steep weekly loss as rising oil prices bolster Federal Reserve rate-hike bets, with consumers in the eurozone expecting prices to rise 3.1% over the next 12 months according to a European Central Bank survey, up from 3.0% in August.

Oil

Oil surged 4.32% to $169.54 as Middle East war concerns intensified, with the US Oil ETF posting its largest single-day gain in weeks. The rally came as investors priced in heightened geopolitical risk premiums amid ongoing conflict in the region. According to Reuters, rising oil prices are bolstering Federal Reserve rate-hike bets by keeping inflation expectations elevated, complicating the central bank's policy calculus ahead of next week's meeting.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to a five-week high against the US dollar as oil prices rose, with the loonie trading 0.1% higher at 1.40 per US dollar after touching its strongest intraday level since September 16, according to Reuters. The move supported expectations that the Bank of Canada would raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Bloomberg noted that the Iran war is among the forces beyond the Fed's control that are complicating its fight against stubborn inflation, contributing to what it described as the most confusing economy the central bank has faced outside of a crisis.

Macro & Global Drivers

The Federal Reserve faces a pivotal policy decision next week amid an economy Bloomberg described as the most complex outside of a crisis, with forces including the AI boom, the Iran war and stubborn inflation complicating rate decisions. Consumer spending remains strong while sentiment is weak, bond yields sit at multi-decade highs, and stocks have rallied despite elevated uncertainty. According to Bloomberg, the central bank is navigating an environment where profit and principles, data and disruption, are colliding in unprecedented ways.

Inflation expectations in the eurozone crept higher in September, with consumers expecting prices to rise 3.1% over the next 12 months, up from 3.0% in August, according to a European Central Bank survey of around 19,000 adults from 11 eurozone members published Friday, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Energy prices continued to rise as the war in the Middle East dragged on, keeping pressure on headline inflation measures. Eastspring Investments noted that China is likely to be the key exception to the view that Asian central banks could tighten monetary policy over the next few quarters, with deflationary pressures from declining property prices and excess industrial capacity weighing on the outlook, according to the Wall Street Journal.

What to Watch Next

Next week brings a critical convergence of events for crypto and broader markets: the Federal Reserve's policy decision amid elevated oil prices and inflation concerns, a flood of megacap tech earnings including AI leaders Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, and continued Bitcoin ETF flow data that will test whether institutional buyers return after this week's $636 million outflows. Ethereum's delayed Glamsterdam testnet and the resolution of flagged security risks will also be closely monitored.